China’s Strained Alliance with Kim Jong Un
The relationship between China and Kim Jong Un is increasingly tense as North Korea strengthens its bond with Russia. In Fangchuan, a small Chinese town near the borders of Russia and North Korea, Chinese tourists overlook the Tumen river, which visually connects these three nations. While the tourists take in the view, Beijing faces an alliance shift that challenges its foreign policy strategy.
China’s Historic Role with North Korea
Historically, China and Kim Jong Un have shared close ties. North Korea relies on China for over 90% of its trade, receiving critical resources like food and fuel. However, recent moves by Kim to align with Russia have worried Chinese officials. According to Christopher Green, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, this evolving China Kim Jong Un alliance could destabilize China’s influence in the region.
Kim Jong Un’s Relationship with Russia
As Kim’s alliance with Putin grows, North Korea has reportedly provided artillery shells and rockets to support Russia’s war efforts. Despite denials from Moscow and Pyongyang, the United States claims evidence of this cooperation. These developments came just as Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Putin at the BRICS summit, underscoring China’s efforts to lead a coalition not dominated by the West.
The Impact of Kim Jong Un’s Actions on China
Beijing is aware of the global perception and potential repercussions of Kim’s recent actions. Reports from South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies about North Korean troops heading to Ukraine have heightened Western anxiety. Beijing has tried to keep these diplomatic strains quiet, but maintaining control over China’s alliance with Kim Jong Un is increasingly challenging.
A Shifting Power Dynamic in East Asia
While Beijing traditionally played a stabilizing role in North Korea, Kim’s recent overtures to Putin complicate this dynamic. For Xi, the fallout could have a significant impact on regional security. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol has discussed security partnerships with Ukraine and NATO, increasing regional tension. The potential formation of an “East Asian NATO” or a nuclear-armed South Korea is far from ideal for Beijing’s ambitions.
China’s Concerns Over Military Technology
Military analysts suggest that Putin may offer Kim military technology, which could undermine stability. “Satellites, for sure,” says North Korea expert Aidan Foster-Carter. The thought of nuclear technology reaching Kim worries both China and Russia, as China’s alliance with Kim Jong Un could suffer from a technology transfer that destabilizes the region.
A Delicate Balance for China
As China’s alliance with Kim Jong Un faces unprecedented pressure, Beijing remains cautious. Cutting off North Korea could lead to a humanitarian crisis, with North Korean refugees potentially flooding the Chinese border. Kim, aware of his reliance on China’s resources, may also face a hard decision: deepen ties with Russia or risk losing China’s critical support.
From across the Tumen river, a North Korean soldier watches Chinese tourists, who enjoy freedoms he may never know. As tourists giggle and snap photos with smartphones, the soldier remains an emblem of a regime closed off from the world, dependent on a precarious alliance with its most powerful neighbor.
Through Gritted Teeth, China Holds On
For now, China seems unwilling to let go of its influence over North Korea, though Kim Jong Un’s recent actions are testing the limits of their alliance. Experts believe that Xi Jinping is unlikely to make drastic moves but will keep a wary eye on North Korea’s evolving loyalty. Kim’s choice to strengthen ties with Russia may one day lead China to reconsider its own stance toward its “comrade from hell.”
