COVID-19 in 2025: Why Is It Becoming Milder?
Despite COVID-19 remaining a global concern, hospitalizations are on a notable decline, even as infections persist. The emergence of the XEC variant, a descendant of Omicron, has raised questions about why the virus appears milder than before, though experts warn against underestimating its long-term effects.
The Milder Impact of the XEC Variant
The XEC variant, dominant since autumn 2024, was initially feared for its ability to evade immunity. However, data from the CDC shows that hospitalizations in December 2024 dropped to 2 per 100,000 people, compared to 6.1 per 100,000 the previous year.
- Symptom Changes: Traditional symptoms like loss of taste and smell are becoming rarer.
- High-Risk Groups: Severe cases are now primarily seen in individuals over 75 or those who are immunocompromised.
- Treatment Evolution: Antiviral medications are now the primary treatment, with less reliance on steroids or anticoagulants.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases professor at the University of California, suggests that most infections today result in mild cold-like symptoms or are entirely asymptomatic.
Why Is COVID-19 Milder Now?
- Enhanced Immune Memory
Dr. Chin-Hong posits that repeated infections and vaccinations have built a robust immune memory in the population. This helps the immune system recognize and clear the virus quickly, reducing its severity. - Shift in Virus Behavior
Over time, the virus has evolved to cause less invasive symptoms, favoring upper respiratory infections over severe pneumonia. - Falling Vaccination Rates
Interestingly, vaccination rates are declining. By the end of 2024, only 21.5% of US adults and 10.6% of children had received the latest vaccine. Despite this, immunity gained from prior exposure may still be helping blunt the virus’s impact.
COVID-19’s Future: Long-Term Risks and Challenges
While COVID-19 seems to be evolving into a less severe illness, experts like Dr. Marc Johnson and Dr. Kei Sato caution against complacency.
- Long COVID: The risk of Long COVID remains for some individuals, with symptoms persisting for months or even years.
- Variants and Immunity Gaps: If an older strain like Delta were to re-emerge, it could evade immunity and cause severe illness.
- Potential Transmission Shifts: Research indicates that COVID-19 could evolve into a faecal-oral virus, similar to norovirus or cholera.
Dr. Johnson’s wastewater surveillance has even identified “cryptic lineages,” hinting at persistent infections in certain individuals.
Why Vaccines Still Matter
Despite the apparent decline in severity, vaccination remains critical. Researchers are working on next-generation vaccines, including mucosal vaccines that prevent transmission and universal vaccines that won’t need yearly updates.
Dr. Chin-Hong emphasizes:
“While most infections today are mild, better therapeutics and vaccines are crucial for long-term public health.”
Key Takeaways
- COVID-19 is evolving into a milder disease, particularly for the general population.
- High-risk groups, including the elderly and immunocompromised, remain vulnerable.
- The virus’s future trajectory is unpredictable, with potential for more severe variants or transmission changes.
- Vaccination and ongoing research are essential to mitigate risks and ensure global health safety.
External Link: BBC
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